It helps you determine the likelihood of each possible score. Poisson distribution in betting is particularly relevant for games like football, where scoring happens on an incremental scale. If you have found something that is more likely to happen than what the bookies predict, that is what value is. If you want to take a scientific, mathematical approach to betting, you should calculate for yourself how likely you think a specific game event, or set of events will be. Bookies do not simply come up with odds out of the blue. When bookies set their odds, it is important to know how likely any event is, based on past performance. To put it simply in terms of football betting, Poisson distribution can help you predict how likely each number of goals scored is. This may seem complicated to someone who has no background in maths, but it is actually a fairly simple method. It measures the likelihood of how many times an event will occur during a specific period. It is a probability theory that uses historical sports data to predict the outcome of a sports event. Poisson distribution was developed by 19 th century French mathematician Siméon Denis Poisson. How to Create Your Own Poisson Football Spreadsheet.Limitations of Poisson Distribution in Betting.Advantages of Poisson Distribution in Betting.How Bookies Convert Estimated Chance Into Betting Odds.What is Poisson Distribution in Betting?.
